As many as 30 up-and-coming suburbs could join the Melbourne’s million-dollar housing club within a year.

But that could hinge on the November state election, with at least one pundit claiming Jacinta Allan’s “the worst state government in the country” when it comes to real estate.

Briar Hill and Botanic Ridge are within $15,000 of their median house prices hitting the $1m mark.

PropTrack stats show that in both cases, if they achieve the same level of growth in the year ahead as in the past 12 months, they will comfortably be $1m suburbs by June 2027.

Meanwhile, typical prices for houses in Altona North and Taylors Lakes, as well as units in Camberwell and Black Rock, are at $980,000 – with enough price growth in the past year to suggest they too could imminently climb into the seven-figure club.

Separate analysis by financial services firm Reventon and real estate and research website Hotspotting shows Botanic Ridge is the area most likely to next join Victoria’s current list of 215 suburbs with a $1m-plus typical house price.

Their data show another 12 suburbs have units that are also typically worth $1m plus.

The analysis shows that in the past year median house prices in 29 Victorian suburbs climbed past the $1m mark, including Airport West, now $1.01m, Gisborne, $1m, and Watsonia, $1.01m.

Reventon chief executive Chris Christofi said the data showed that, despite broad expectations of a market slowdown, a number of areas were still gaining ground.

Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said Melbourne was facing a period of “great uncertainty” amid rising interest rates, conflict in the Middle East and the federal budget – and it was hard to be sure when price rises would resume to add to the city’s $1m club.

But the respected property pundit said many suburbs’ fortunes would hinge heavily on November’s state election.

“In terms of property markets growing in Melbourne, what they need more than anything else is a change of state government, as the state government is not particularly friendly to real estate markets or investors,” Mr Ryder said.

“It’s the worst state government in the country, and in some ways it feels like the worst state government ever, as far as real estate goes.”

PropTrack economist Luc Redman said interest rates would have a significant influence on whether suburbs rose past the $1m mark, as would property tax changes announced in the federal budget.

“Combined, they will lead to a weakening of growth, particularly at the edge of the $1m market,” Mr Redman said.

He noted that his firm was still in the camp that rate cuts would not occur until 2027 at the earliest, and that Consumer Price Index numbers this week even suggested a further rate rise was still ahead.

However, the economist said in Melbourne a $950,000 cap on the federal government’s 5 per cent first-home deposit support scheme could lead to enough activity in the affordable segments of a suburb that it would help elevate it to $1m.

McGrath agent Leo Widjaja said it felt as though Botanic Ridge could have a $1m median by year’s end.

“You can’t really get anything under the $850,000 mark now for a house,” Mr Widjaja said. “And once the market recovers, I don’t see any problem with it becoming a seven-digit median.”

The agent said the area was attracting buyers from young families to middle-aged locals and even downsizers.

“And Melbourne is long overdue for a boom of the market,” he said.