The days of boom-level home prices in Queensland may finally be over, with a report suggesting the start of a market slowdown driven by an affordability crisis. After five years of price growth, the affordability advantage that originally attracted buyers to the state has been “significantly eroded”, home sales are going downhill, and rising interest rates and cost of living pressures are weighing on households.

Brisbane is the clearest underperformer among the major capitals in exclusive new figures from PropTrack, commissioned by property investment company, Hotspotting, that show the Queensland capital’s red-hot housing market may have reached its peak. Hotspotting founder and managing director Terry Ryder said home sales peaked at 18,978 in September 2021, as interstate migration from Sydney and Melbourne drove unprecedented demand, but those numbers had since been declining steadily. “The most likely explanations are the rapid price growth Brisbane experienced through 2021 to 2023, which has significantly eroded the affordability advantage that originally drove migration, combined with a normalisation of interstate buyer flows,” Ryder said.

“At roughly 27 per cent below its September 2021 peak, Brisbane is in a very different position to its southern counterparts. Without a meaningful affordability reset or a new demand catalyst, the volume recovery story in Brisbane remains elusive.” In the Brisbane local government area, the only rising markets for units are Clayfield, Toowong, Bulimba, and Mount Gravatt East, while the house markets still on the rise are Ascot, Chelmer and Tarragindi. But Ryder stopped short of saying Brisbane’s property boom was over. “Brisbane is a little bit against the trend with these numbers, and it surprised me a little bit,” he said. “I’m just not convinced this is a trend yet. Brisbane’s still got a lot of momentum, and there are a lot of reasons why the momentum might continue.”

Some economists have said expected changes to housing-related policies, such as the capital gains tax discount, could put further downward pressure on the market, along with higher mortgage rates. By the end of 2027, the Commonwealth Bank forecasts annual price growth in Brisbane to slow to about 4 per cent – down from the past year’s 15 per cent. “As higher interest rates take hold, housing construction picks up, population slows, and affordability constraints become more binding, price growth in Brisbane is expected to slow,” CBA senior economist Trent Saunders said.

REGIONAL OUTLOOK The evidence of a slowdown in some parts of regional Queensland is more clear, according to the Hotspotting report, which shows sales are about 30 per cent below their September 2021 peak. “What is most concerning about regional Queensland is not the contraction itself, but the complete absence of recovery momentum since mid-2023,” Ryder said. The buyer frenzy in Rockhampton appears to be over, with a noticeable dip in sales activity in the last quarter. Norman Gardens and Berserker remain consistent, but there is declining buyer activity in Parkhurst and Koongal.

It’s a similar scenario in Townsville, where sales last year were 14 per cent lower than in 2024. While sales activity is rising in Kirwan and Idalia, it’s declining in the markets of Aitkenvale, Burdell, Kelso, Mount Low and Oonoonba. Central Queensland markets have been booming for the past three years, but there are signs of the buyer frenzy slowing, particularly in Gladstone where sales have been trending south for the past 18 months. “These regional cities have all had fantastic runs for more than three years, but (the growth) had to start to subside a little bit at some point,” Ryder said.

“Originally, one of the things that inspired people … to buy there was the level of affordability. Investors could buy cheaply and get great rental yields, but that’s no longer the case. You can’t get 6 per cent-plus rental yields any more. It’s more like 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent. The evidence is clear there’s a wind-down and the peak has been passed.” PropTrack economist Eleanor Creagh said it was possible the North Queensland market had peaked. “We have seen the pace of growth slowing in both Cairns and Townsville,” Creagh said. “It’s a normal part of the market cycle after they were consistently among the top regions in the country for growth over many years.”

But the Gold Coast market, which has been pumping strongly for five years, still has solid numbers, with rising sales for houses in Ashmore, Broadbeach Waters, Hope Island, Mudgeeraba and Surfers Paradise. Among the unit markets, rising transaction levels are found in Miami and Palm Beach. Pimpama is among the suburbs where sales have dropped. “Gold Coast price growth remains strong,” Creagh said. “Prices are still lifting at a double-digit pace annually. There isn’t a significant slowdown.”

More than half of the Sunshine Coast and Noosa markets also have positive sales numbers with Noosa Heads a standout for unit sales.

Where sales are falling b Indooroopilly, Brisbane b Browns Plains, Logan b Pimpama, Gold Coast b Parkhurst, Rockhampton b Koongal, Rockhampton b South Gladstone, Gladstone b New Auckland, Gladstone b West Mackay, Mackay b Bucasia, Mackay b Westcourt, Cairns b Bayview Heights, Cairns b Burdell, Townsville b Mount Low, Townsville b Aitkenvale, Townsville b Oonoonba, Townsville b Kelso, Townsville b Collinsville, Whitsunday b Biloela, Banana b Burrum Heads, Fraser Coast b Clermont, Isaac Source: Hotspotting